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Devices and Services for the Home: Forecast 2002 March 2002 Author:   Michael Gold About This Report Table of Contents Download the full report (pdf) About This Report The outlook for digital products and services in the home influences decisions by providers of content, devices, and network services. Regrettably, no one can know the future. But stakeholders can develop forecasts consistent with what they know about technology, demand, and competition. In our experience, current decisions for R&D managers and business-development professionals strongly depend on consensus views of the outlook for key products and services, particularly broadband home Internet, digital television, DVD-Video players and recorders, and hard-disk–drive video recorders (such as those of TiVo). This report provides both quantitative and qualitative assessment of how markets for home entertainment will develop during the first decade of the twenty-first century. We welcome feedback about this report and the program, and we encourage you to contact us with any questions or suggestions. For more information, please contact Ed Christie, director, Digital Futures; telephone: +1 650 859 2400; fax: +1 650 859 4544; e-mail: echristie@sric-bi.com. We appreciate your support of our program and look forward to working closely with you as a Digital Futures sponsor. CONTENTS About This Report ii Broadband Home Internet: Europe 1   Market Development 1   Wild Cards 2 Broadband Home Internet: Japan 4   Market Development 4   Wild Cards 5 Broadband Home Internet: Korea 6 Broadband Home Internet: North America 8   Market Development 8   Wild Cards 10 Digital Television Services 11   Market Development 11     Digital DBS: Among the Most Successful Home-Electronics Markets Ever 12     Digital Cable: Driven to Catch up with DBS 12     Digital Terrestrial TV: Mired in Public Apathy/Government Ambivalence 12     Interactive TV and Video on Demand 13     Multiplayer Games 14     TV Commerce 14   DSL Video: A Wild Card for Digital-TV Market Development 15 DVD Players and Recorders 16 Hard-Disk–Drive Video Recorders 19   Market Development 19   The HDD Video-Recorder Audience 20   A Portable-Device Wild Card 21   Figures Adoption of Broadband Internet Services in Europe 1 Adoption of Broadband Internet Services in Japan 4 Adoption of Broadband Internet Services in Korea 6 Adoption of Broadband Internet Services in North America 8 Worldwide Adoption of Digital Television Services 11 Adoption of DVD Players/Recorders Worldwide 16 Share of Worldwide DVD Households: by Technology 17 Worldwide Installed Base of Hard-Disk-Drive Video Recorders 19

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